In the FCS Huddle: Struggling programs must realize it's time
NCAA Football Betting Lines
02/22/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New head coaches, especially those with struggling teams, are often quick to sidestep questions about win totals measuring their success.
You've probably heard the coach speak before: If the team gets back to the basics and does all the little things it is supposed to do, then the winning will fall into place.
Of course, if that doesn't happen, then the coach will keep his moves like Jagger the next time the media ask about a timeframe for winning.
It's usually the veteran coaches, and winning coaches, who are more open to wins and losses being a barometer.
Whether that's fair or not is debatable because, well, graduating players is an important measuring stick that too often is overlooked by sports fans.
It makes what football coach Rob Ambrose did in his third season at Towson all the more impressive.
Last year, he turned a team that was 3-19 in his first two seasons into the CAA Football champion and a Top 10 team. But he also had told his team in no- uncertain terms that it was time to start winning. He was even accountable publically ( http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page= cfoot2/misc/haley/archive/haley_7_01_2011.htm).
By year three, the honeymoon is over for coaches. They have had time to get their assistant coaches, recruits and philosophies in place. The struggling ones must say it's time to start winning more.
Some coaches who came on board for the 2010 season have taken their programs to great heights in their first two seasons, such as Sam Houston State's Willie Fritz, who had the Bearkats ranked No. 1 last season on their way to a national runner-up finish; Georgia Southern's Jeff Monken and Montana's Robin Pflugrad, who have reached the national semifinals; and Bethune- Cookman's Brian Jenkins, Murray State's Chris Hatcher and Portland State's Nigel Burton, who have orchestrated turnarounds with their programs.
To a lesser extent, Bucknell's Joe Susan, Cornell's Kent Austin, Lamar's Ray Woodard, Tennessee State's Ron Reed and Youngstown State's Eric Wolford have brought excitement to their programs.
But others need to make sure year three is so much better than the first two - channel their inner Ambrose with his blueprint.
There's Princeton third-year coach Bob Surace, who turned in his black-and- orange stripes with the Cincinnati Bengals to return to the ones he wore in the Ivy League with the Tigers. Surace has played enough young players in the last two seasons for the Tigers to improve dramatically on his 2-18 record, although running back Chuck Dibilio, the league's 2011 freshman of the year, is trying to recover from a stroke suffered less than five weeks ago.
Saint Francis (Pa.) hasn't posted a winning season since 1992, but the Northeast Conference team appears primed to show improvement under Chris Villarrial, who is 3-19 through two seasons. With the return of running back Kyle Harbridge (1,430 yards, 14 touchdowns), it could happen.
In the Southwestern Athletic Conference, Southern took a big step in Stump Mitchell's second season, doubling its win total from two in 2010 to four. Meanwhile, Mississippi Valley State ended a 19-game losing streak in Karl Morgan's second season, although it's his only win in his two seasons.
Dale Carlson also has only one win in two seasons at Valparaiso, which has been the FCS' worst program recently. But the Pioneer Football League team has a young nucleus, including quarterback Eric Hoffman, that appears ready for greater success.
Nicholls State dropped from 4-7 in 2010 to 1-10 in Charlie Stubbs' second season. This year's schedule is front-loaded with difficult games, so the Colonels may need to win some games late in the season to show marked improvement.
One program that likely faces a rough going in coach Bill Curry's third season is Georgia State, which is joining the CAA after two seasons as a startup independent. After going 6-5 in 2010, the Panthers fell to 3-8 last season and now have a tougher schedule ahead.
Then again, it was easy to cast doubt on Towson going into 2011.
Most head coaches of struggling teams may talk about progress more than the wins. Even if it's just behind the scenes, it's time they demand accountability in the win column.
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Horse Betting
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
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